A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
